Breakout Prospect Prediction Review

Keury Mella (Conner Penfold-Giant Potential)

Keury Mella (Conner Penfold-Giant Potential)

Back in March, I predicted four "unknown" breakout prospects and four "known" breakout prospects. The most enjoyable part about making predictions such as these is looking back to see whether you were a certified psychic or a serious idiot. 

Joking, of course, because it has only been three and a half months. But, hey, let's go ahead and see if I made myself look good or not.

Cody Hall

I was surprised at all to see Hall repeat Double-A, considering his dominance last season with both San Jose and Richmond. He hasn't had quite the season you would expect considering he owned a 0.78 WHIP over 60 innings in 2013. Nonetheless, despite a rough opening month, Hall has been one of the most reliable relievers for the Flying Squirrels, including a spectacular June where he didn't allow an earned run in 13.1 innings.

  • My Prediction: 5-3, 50 G, 2.49 ERA, 65.1 IP, 11 saves, 42 H, 24 R, 18 ER, 21 BB, 83 K
  • Current Stats: 1-4, 41 G, 3.27 ERA, 44.0 IP, 10 saves, 33 H, 16 R, 16 ER, 13 BB, 50 K
  • Season Pace: 1-6, 58 G, 3.27 ERA, 62.0 IP, 14 saves, 47 H, 23 R, 23 ER, 18 BB, 71 K

Hall's pace has him set for a spot in the Fresno Grizzlies' bullpen in 2015, but until then, he'll combine with Hunter Strickland and Steven Okert in an effort to push the Flying Squirrels to their first Eastern League playoff appearance since 2011. 

Matt Duffy

Duffy's first three and a half months have been eye-opening to say the least. He leads the Eastern League in batting average, is second in on-base percentage, and is fourth in RBIs. Other than a few brief injuries, Duffy has played practically the whole season for Richmond, and all of but two games at shortstop.

  • My Prediction: 115 G, 422 AB, 122 H, 27 2B, 5 3B, 10 HR, 60 RBI, 60 BB, 65 K
  • Current Stats: 87 G, 326 AB, 112 H, 19 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 59 RBI, 40 BB, 61 K
  • Season Pace: 122 G, 457 AB, 157 H, 27 2B, 6 3B, 4 HR, 83 RBI, 56 BB, 85 K

These types of numbers in this league are a spectacle. Most notably, Duffy's projected 157 hits — assuming he finishes the season with Richmond — would break the 153-hit team record set by Thomas Neal in 2010, the team's inaugural year.

Luis Castillo

I was likely a bit overzealous in thinking Castillo's numbers would translate from the Dominican Summer League into any league he might have ended up in to begin the 2014 season. However, I did not anticipate his entry into the South Atlantic League with the Augusta GreenJackets, skipping two levels. Castillo has struggled in allowing runners to reach (1.59 WHIP), though he's managed to keep the earned run average below four. 

  • My Prediction: 2-2, 48 G, 2.12 ERA, 51.0 IP, 24 saves, 39 H, 19 R, 12 ER, 12 BB, 70 K
  • Current Stats: 2-1, 34 G, 3.63 ERA, 39.2 IP, 8 saves, 41 H, 17 R, 16 ER, 22 BB, 37 K
  • Season Pace: 3-1, 48 G, 3.63 ERA, 56.0 IP, 11 saves, 58 H, 24 R, 23 ER, 31 BB, 52 K

Brian Ragira

I received a bit of flak for predicting Ragira would have the type of season I suggested he would, so I'm happy to see he's on pace for a decently impressive season with San Jose. How his game will translate to Richmond next season is still to be seen. 

  • My Prediction: 120 G, 450 AB, 129 H, 25 2B, 6 3B, 15 HR, 82 RBI, 58 BB, 98 K
  • Current Stats: 90 G, 341 AB, 83 H, 21 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 25 BB, 93 K
  • Season Pace: 126 G, 477 AB, 116 H, 30 2B, 0 3B, 15 HR, 76 RBI, 35 BB, 130 K

The 130 strikeout mark is right on par with another similar player, Mac Williamson, who struck out two more times a season ago, though in 43 more at-bats.